Neocloud operator Nebius reported second-quarter results before the US open on 12 August: revenue of $582.3m, up 454% year on year and 46% sequentially.
The crossover quarter
Adjusted EBITDA came in at positive $236.2m — a genuine inflection for a business that has been buying capacity ahead of demand. The adjusted net loss narrowed to $33m from $92m, and loss per share was $0.68. The AI segment contributed $575m, up 514%, leaving everything else at roughly 2% of the group.
The number that sets the price
Annualised run-rate revenue reached $3.0bn at the end of June, up 598% year on year and 56% against March. Nebius reaffirmed full-year revenue guidance of $3.0-3.4bn with an adjusted EBITDA margin near 40%, and an exit ARR target of $7-9bn.
Capex is seven times revenue
The company kept 2026 capital expenditure guidance at $20-25bn — roughly seven times the revenue it expects to book this year. That gap is the entire neocloud model: capacity must be contracted and energised before the revenue that justifies it exists. Positive EBITDA reduces how much of that has to come from outside capital, but does not close it.
Market reaction
Shares rose 16.5% in premarket trading to $225.15 from a $193.23 close, and finished the day up roughly 31%. Different outlets cite moves between 16.5% and 34% depending on which point in the session they measured.
Where the risk sits now
Growth of 454% off a small base is easier than holding a $3bn run rate while spending $25bn. The question this quarter does not answer is contract duration and counterparty concentration — a run rate assembled from a handful of large AI tenants behaves very differently in a downturn than one spread across many.